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Comment by varjag

17 years ago

America will pull out from Afghanistan, and the central government will fall before the decade ends.

This implies there is currently some functioning central government, which is mostly a polite fiction. One of Afghanistan's fiefdoms is centered on Kabul, and we pretend that one is the government.

  • It's not really native to Kabul area, but loosely representative of former Northern Alliance (read: Tajik). And Pushtu tribes (southeast of the country, Taliban demographics) are not happy about that and never going to accept it.

    Maybe it could be better to really split Afghanistan by ethnic boundaries, then there could be hope of building some form of society in one of them. Of course, not going to happen.

This is almost a no-brainer. I also predict something similar to a rerun of the soviet withdrawal.