Comment by paulsutter
10 years ago
> assigning probabilities of 0 and 1 to anything is a very bad idea
THAT'S MY WHOLE POINT. Thank you. When a person says something is true/false/proven/disproven, that person is assigning a probability of 0 or 1 to it.
> http://lesswrong.com/lw/mp/0_and_1_are_not_probabilities/
I nearly cited this exactly. I love that article because it clearly spells out what's disturbed me for years about cloudy thinking.
When someone says a matter has been "proven" or "disproven", they are saying the matter is closed, and they feel no need to update in the future.
It's not pointless arguing. That's really what the words mean, and that's usually what people intend when they use those words. Other uses are misuses. It's perfectly OK to mis-speak in casual conversation and we're all obliged to understand each other in the most charitable way possible. On the other hand - when someone consistently speaks in a way that sure to be misunderstood, it's helpful to point this out.
And seriously - Kahneman made the overall point more clearly, with a practical antidote we can use every day. Being "totally convinced" is a clean indicator that our intuitive mind has latched onto consistency. And that's a very useful guideline to introspecting that very conclusion.
Ok. So I guess we miscommunicated, and have been thinking about the same thing all along. :).
As for your original comment - the author of this article is none other than Yvain from LW, whom you will most likely recognize if you read stuff on that site. You can safely assume that he knows all this stuff we discussed and (being a practicing psychiatrist) is aware of Kahneman. Knowing this, and taking into account his typically casual style I invite you to re-read the article while applying the principle of charity, and see if your original criticism still applies.