Comment by justinpaulson
9 years ago
I think becoming wealthy is incentive enough to become wealthy. No one is going to stop trying to be wealthy just because they might get taxed for that wealth. If anything, they will just try to hide it in another state. But the argument that a wealth tax would remove any incentive to become wealthy is not very strong.
If a lottery ticket's prices goes up, and the purse goes down and/or the odds get longer, you'll be less inclined to buy a ticket.
It's the same with work. If hard work is less likely to pay off, or if you'll have to work harder, or both, you'll be less likely to work harder. Some people will work harder anyways, and many will be discouraged.
Marginal effects matter. This is why dynamic analysis is important.
And the marginal effects of having 100M in the bank over 10M in the bank over 1M over 100K are all still huge for any feasible tax scheme I could imagine.
What does your world look like where you'd be too taxed to bother wanting to be financially independent?
#define financially independent
That phrase means different things to different people. In some parts of the world, $50k could consider you to be financially independent. $500k in others, and in some parts, you'd need $5m - $50m.
What if I told you it cost $5/day to rent a luxury hotel room with cleaning, full board, and high speed broadband provided as standard?
What if I told you it cost $1500/month for a small studio apartment with no furnishings or anything else?
Both are true, both are real, both require different amounts of money in order to achieve financial independence.
I realise now that I haven't actually answered your question:
> What does your world look like where you'd be too taxed to bother wanting to be financially independent?
Rewriting that to be "What does your world look like where you'd be too taxed to bother generating more wealth?"
There comes a point of diminishing returns. If you work a 40 hour week already and make a decent living at 40-50%, and now get told that anything above that will get taxed at 75%, unless you're going to somehow generate more than double, you're going to spend that time doing more productive things (like spending it with your family).
Arguably, that's a net-positive for society as a whole, but may be a net-negative for the economy/GDP of the country you reside in.
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I don't buy lottery tickets as it is. Many people in marginal financial positions do, and lots of tickets at that. Now suppose that ticket prices went up by a factor of 10 and purses down by a factor of ten, and odds lengthened some. Why would anyone in a marginal financial situation not then reduce their total number of tickets bought?! Of course they would!
Now to answer your question, consider say, a prospective engineering student. They could go to school and come out with $150k or more in debt. But if their post-tax income potential goes down (especially initially), thus their ability to pay off that debt goes down, thus making it more crushing than it already would be, why on Earth would they even consider bothering to go to school then?! Of course a lot of potential students would find something else to do! It's utterly obvious. Painfully obvious. So right there you'll have a decrease in the number of people pursuing certain careers -- hard work being avoided.
Even beyond the economic effect on students, there is just a basic personal calculus as well. You might choose to live with a lower income and more free time to enjoy as you wish (if with fewer luxuries than you might like) than work harder and harder for less and less reward. You only have so many prime years for enjoying the one life you have. Everything is a trade-off. You might work harder now if it means you'll be better able to enjoy some free time later, but if working harder will make little difference to your ability to enjoy free time in the future, why work harder?
And beyond that, we know what low incentives did to would-be hard workers' desire to work hard in the U.S.S.R. and such places. Spoilers: they certainly didn't work harder when they didn't have guns to their heads incentivizing them.
By the way, the same sorts who say that increasing income taxes (or otherwise putting a ceiling on incomes) wouldn't have an effect on how hard people work... also tend to argue that higher tobacco taxes will reduce tobacco use. We all know about the prodigious powers of doublethink in some quarters, but don't think for a minute that everyone accepts doublethink, let alone masters it. And sure, you yourself didn't just make that argument, but I bet you do when it comes to topics where that argument is convenient. I, on the other hand, accept that punitive/confiscatory taxes only serve to reduce the amount of activity being taxed regardless of whether it is an activity I appreciate. If you ever find yourself making that argument, please recognize it and choose consistency.
A lottery ticket is just about the worst example you could use to prove the connection between risk and motivation. It has a low chance of paying off, yet people still buy them all the time.
"If a lottery ticket's prices goes up, and the purse goes down and/or the odds get longer, you'll be less inclined to buy a ticket"
Has this effect been shown in the real world? That implies more interest in the odds than their target market demonstrates any interest in (hence the term, "for the math-impaired").
I'm fairly certain that the opposite held true in reality. When the multi state lottery association decreased the is of winning the Powerball last year,sales went up a lot because of the lure of the $1B payouts.
>>Some people will work harder anyways, and many will be discouraged.
Some people will work harder, by moving to a different country, where the tax laws are saner and don't punish hard working prime movers for the very value they provide.
So why doesn't the government pay people who make more money? Won't that incentivize the right things?
(I mean, I think this is obviously silly, but it seems to hold up by exactly the same argument.)
Right, it only becomes a problem if you tax wealth so much that the net value of the next dollar is lower than the effort required to obtain it. At a certain level of wealth, where one is effectively paying others to invest their money for them, and they're earning off interest, that effort is basically 0.