Comment by dpcx
8 years ago
Personally, I think many of your time estimates are wildly pessimistic. Humanity is on an improvement graph that almost seems exponential - I don't think it would be crazy to see driverless cars in the next 5-10 years, considering how many people continue to get in to this space. There may be strict legislation around it, but that's a different discussion. Similarly, look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released... 2090 definitely seems like a stretch.
We've been able to do driverless cars since the 90s. It's doing it safely while mixed in with normal cars that's the problem. I'm with the other poster that we won't see driverless cars in non-dedicated lanes for at least 20 years.
Edit: actually the article mentions a self driving car from 1987, so even earlier.
look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released
Not far at all. I still struggle to do basic tasks with my Apple Watch 3 (like sending a text to one of my contacts, or automatically start/stop Run app when I start/stop running).
To be fair, look how far we've come in "assistants" in the last 6 years since Siri was released can be read as “look how much Siri has been surpassed in quality by other assistants since it was introduced” rather than “look how far Siri has advanced since it was introduced”.