Comment by m0zg
8 years ago
"Ever" is a very long time. But I'd be comfortable saying AGI won't arrive in my lifetime, at least not electronic AGI. Note that I single out electronic AGI here due to both our complete lack of understanding of how to model intelligence, and the prohibitive energy cost of modelling the brain if we did understand how to do so.
OTOH advances in genome understanding could yield e.g. a super smart chimp, or dolphin, something like that. That would also be "artificial" intelligence then, and it would be general, just not electronic.
Unfortunately we are still vastly better at making a worse mouse (or cow) than a better one, to paraphrase biologist Anne McLaren. Sure, evolution did eventually make a super smart chimp, but it took 7 million years of tinkering.
Sure, but I think you'll agree that it's a dark horse, far more dark than Moore's law or Dennard scaling.