Comment by nradov
8 years ago
That's a total non-sequitur. So far there is zero evidence that increases in computing power are getting us any close to true AGI. It's entirely possible that we've been moving sideways, or even backwards, relative to that goal.
And we can't reliably extrapolate growth in computing power more than a few years into the future. It's possible that the curve isn't really exponential, but rather an S-curve which will eventually flatten out.
Now you're going out of context. We very well may be on the wrong track for making an AGI, but the OP's premise was that once a mouse-level AGI is achieved, human-level AGI won't be far behind.
I'm more comfortable predicting that computing power will continue to grow than to predict that it will peter out and everyone will simply sit back and be happy with what we've got.