Comment by rms
17 years ago
The prediction markets like Obama. http://www.intrade.com
McCain has been around for a long time and has said a lot of contradictory things -- it is easy to edit videos together to make him look like a fool. A flip-flopper, if you will.
Intrade's markets on the election are ripe for arbitrage: 4.2 the price for the Clinton nomination, and 6.0 for her winning the general. What's that, a 43% profit with very very low risk[buy the nomination, sell the general: can't win the general without the nomination]?
The problem is that the Intrade market is small, requires a wire transfer + personal docs to deposit money, and is almost certainly illegal in the US. I've wanted to play there many times, but I've never wanted to go through the process of getting my money to Ireland.
If I could legally bet against him I probably would. McCain is an idiot. He's old. He's ugly. He's got awful cancer scars. He's sick as a pike. He's a hypocrite. He's a criminal. He's (possibly) insane. I'm aware of his faults, but I'm also aware that none of them "stick". Obama and his various followers have consistently broken a key rule of politics: Do not insult the voters. I expect more of the same.
Obama is a pyschologically interesting person, and I can't help hoping he wins, in a way. (Only because it would be interesting, though). McCain is as interesting as Franco, which is to say: Not at all. Obama, by contrast, grew up politically as a strict identity-politician. That is, a "black" politician, who mainly tried to divert public money and favors to a particular race. Read his bio. This attitude is somewhat artificial and I'm not sure that he has the sort of natural bigotry of Jesse Jackson or Sharpton. Nonetheless, his politics are damn close.
His goal now is to divorce himself from his past: First, whatever his "real" personality is, plus the somewhat phony personality he concocted during his Chicago inner city days. He's got a lot of contradictions to cover up, and a lot of hard acting to do. I think he'll crack, frankly, before it's over.
Another thing: He's a wimp. Wimps lose. McCain is a bully. Bullies win.
Methinks you get your info from some pretty biased sources, none of which you cite.
And your last "point" is just plain horseshit.
Congratulations to Obama. You've got my prediction here and now he will be the next president...by a landslide.
You've got my prediction here and now he will be the next president...by a landslide.
I wish you turn out right, but not that this is far from the case if the election were held today:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html
And your last "point" is just plain horseshit.
Ha ha. Hillary Clinton seems tough as nails compared to him, and she's wept publicly half a dozen times during the campaign. First of all, it's undeniable that McCain is tougher than Obama. As much as I hate Mac, the guy is 1000x tougher than the average person and he's got the crippled body to prove it. That's a given. Second, if you don't think the bully wins over the wimp, you must be a democrat, because that's a primary reason they can't win the presidency. John Kerry? WTF? Dukakis? Mondale? Carter and Kennedy won on technicalities. Better hope for another...
some pretty biased sources
Ha ha. Obama's bio. The guy is obsessed with race.