Comment by napoleond

This is less difficult than you're implying. It's true that selecting the Stripe of 2025 is difficult; you need to pick between companies that are only 3 years old. Similarly, if you want to select the Google of 2040, you would need to pick between a bunch of companies working out of their friends' garages, and that would not be easy. But to select the Google of 2030, you need to look at companies which:

1. Are about 10 years old.

2. Are close to IPO (Google was already 4 years post-IPO when it was 10 years old, but IPO timing has changed since then).

3. Have market fit with multiple products (Google had Gmail, Maps, and Chrome already when it was 10 years old).

4. Are still founder-led.

To select the Apple of 2040, you need to look at companies which:

1. Are about 20 years old.

2. Are about 10 years past IPO (again, Apple IPO'd 4 years after its founding, but the same company today would probably IPO a bit later)

3. Are still actively innovating, and launching successful new products.

4. Are still founder-led.

These companies exist, and they have been substantially de-risked relative to the 3 year-old startups. Engineers that join them today will have similar financial outcomes to those that joined Google in 2008, or Apple in 1996.