Don't think about it as _the_ coronavirus. Think of it as _a new virus_ and things start to make more sense. Over the next 100 years _a new virus_ is likely going to develop that spreads quickly and is lethal. When a new one comes up it's hard to tell initial how it spreads, how fast it spreads, and how lethal it is. For now, I think it's unlikely that the coronavirus will kill all that many people. For now, I think more people should just get the flu shot and not worry about coronavirus. But I'll update my opinion if the spread and death toll seem to worsen.
As an aside, stopping pandemics is on of the main things that Bill Gates is passionate about.
High lethality and high virulence are opposed to each other. Most of the people who have died from coronavirus have been older people with weaker immune systems.
For coronavirus, it doesn't necessarily have to be the death rate as of this moment that should cause worry. Coronavirus can cause ARDS, described here: https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ
Treating ARDS in a handful of cases isn't so bad. It's treating ARDS in hundreds of thousands of people that's very very bad.
Hospitals can quickly become full and hospitals also rely on supply chains for materials, which would also become overwhelmed.
I'm not saying panic is the right thing to do, because it isn't, but what I am saying is that the quarantines aren't excessive and there's a reason why governments are paying attention.
Don't think about it as _the_ coronavirus. Think of it as _a new virus_ and things start to make more sense. Over the next 100 years _a new virus_ is likely going to develop that spreads quickly and is lethal. When a new one comes up it's hard to tell initial how it spreads, how fast it spreads, and how lethal it is. For now, I think it's unlikely that the coronavirus will kill all that many people. For now, I think more people should just get the flu shot and not worry about coronavirus. But I'll update my opinion if the spread and death toll seem to worsen.
As an aside, stopping pandemics is on of the main things that Bill Gates is passionate about.
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Shattuck-Lecture
High lethality and high virulence are opposed to each other. Most of the people who have died from coronavirus have been older people with weaker immune systems.
For coronavirus, it doesn't necessarily have to be the death rate as of this moment that should cause worry. Coronavirus can cause ARDS, described here: https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ
Treating ARDS in a handful of cases isn't so bad. It's treating ARDS in hundreds of thousands of people that's very very bad.
Hospitals can quickly become full and hospitals also rely on supply chains for materials, which would also become overwhelmed.
I'm not saying panic is the right thing to do, because it isn't, but what I am saying is that the quarantines aren't excessive and there's a reason why governments are paying attention.
Not by itself, but because China is never transparent with numbers, and because they quarantined millions of people, they have sparked a panic.
If the death rate is really 2%, and if it is a contagious as it seems...