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Comment by diroussel

5 years ago

A paper published in the Lancet on Friday said that the peak infection is persecuted to be in April. But if more curbs on movement are out in place then the total infections will be lower, but the peak will be later. But this was based on a current infected population of 75k, much higher than the Chinese official figure of 14k people.

Source Dr John Campbell. https://youtu.be/z05ZrMfKUDc

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diroussel

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koheripbal  5 years ago

I think your underlying point is correct - the duration of this outbreak is unknown.

Regarding the Chinese figure of 14k - it is only for "laboratory confirmed" cases. Given that Chinese hospitals are refusing any patients that aren't in serious distress, the "real" number of cases is likely already much much more than 14k.

There are also reports of death certificates being issued for "unknown viral pneumonia", because they don't have the time to test the dead.

This would explain why there are sooo many cases abroad - despite "only" a few thousand cases in China.

One virologist tweeted (can't find it now), that he believes 95% of cases are unreported in China.

We also have to bare in mind that most non-western countries do not have DNA test kits for this virus. When we look at the updated map of infections, there are glaring gaps in countries like Laos and Myanmar with ALL of their neighbors reporting infections. Those countries are, of course, not immune to the virus - they simply don't have the facilities to confirm cases, and have gov'ts that would rather hide the evidence so as not to disrupt travel/create panic.

I don't think we should OVER-react, but also we shouldn't UNDER react.

  • bangboombang  5 years ago

    Imo the model of those Australian scientists from a few days ago forecasting 75k infections in China by Feb. 4th was pretty spot on.

    Official numbers in China right now are 17k infections plus 21k estimated unreported cases.[1] Let's assume their numbers are a little too optimistic and there you go, 75k by tomorrow.

    [1] https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm