Comment by cinquemb

> It's not a black swan, a pandemic was long on the horizon (think SATS, MERS, Ebola, ...).

I agree with this statement

> Just to add: I found taleb pretty opionated and had trouble distinguishing his own opinions from facts/theories.. I'd not recommend his books.

Everyone has an opinion… but very few will step through the mathematical models (and where/how they break down) behind how they are gauging/backtesting the risk of ones assumptions (and go about figuring out how to adopt it to your own circumstances), like taleb does.