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Comment by Retric

5 years ago

Exactly, the only thing limiting solar at this point is the rate of investment. Wind and hydro etc have a huge role, but for some back of the envelope estimates.

On the storage issue, at ~100$/kWh batteries that do a conservative 1,000 cycles are ~10c/kWh stored + generation costs + conversion inefficiency. Take current unsubsidized grid solar prices of 2c/kWh solar and double that for 4c/kWh as a conservative redundant safety margin. Tracking solar for example has much better morning and evening generation though at slightly higher prices.

If 2/3 of your electricity is at 4c/kWh and 1/3 is at 15c/kWh that’s 7.7c/kWh for pure solar 24/7 including peaking power needs. Obviously a specific mix of generation determines storage needs, but those are also really pessimistic estimates.

PS: Hydro power is 6.1% of the total U.S. electricity generation. If 80% of that is released at night that’s a huge reduction in storage needed. Similarly transmitting power east or west makes a large difference in storage needs.

Hydro isn't quite so fungible, I think a couple areas account for most the hydro generation.