Comment by blaser-waffle
6 years ago
Predatory Pricing absolutely works... when you have a working business model and capital to back it up.
Walmart and McDonalds are masters of this approach.
Uber is a long-term play at disrupting cabs/transportation cartels and incorporated self-driving cars into a non-literal roadmap. They're in it for the long play, and even if they hemorrhage money for a while longer it may, in fact, play out in their favor.
Walmart and McD don't do predatory pricing -- they just have lower prices while being profitable.
Predatory pricing is intentionally setting loss-making prices to drive out competition to then hike prices to profitable levels.
Notice this isn't what "ultra returns to scale" businesses are doing -- they're just profitably pricing low.
American Airlines famously killed upstart after upstart that attempted to fly out of Dallas Love Field. They kept a lease on two gates, but left them unused almost all of the time (AA generally flies out of the larger Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport). Whenever any new company tried to start new service out of Love field, American would open those two gates, match routes exactly to the startup, and charge substantially less, clearly incurring a loss for each plane flown. As soon as the new company was driven into bankruptcy, AA would again shutter those gates, leaving them available to crush the next company that tried to start at Love Field. See, e.g., Legend Airlines.
Right, so then the startup should sell nonrefundable tickets several weeks in advance. As soon as American starts flying those routes below cost, move your own planes to a different route, book all your passengers with nonrefundable tickets on the American flights and pocket the difference. As soon as they stop, start flying those routes again.
There is presumably some regulatory burden preventing someone from doing this. Maybe you can't move planes from one route to another so easily etc. But then that's how the company does it. Without that method of forcing the new competitor to incur unrecoverable costs, they can't do it.
It's theoretically possible to have a natural market barrier like that, but in practice to be a barrier that large it's nearly always a regulatory compliance issue. The law says you can't sign up customers on long-term contracts, preventing new competitors from locking in customers at the current price rather than the below-cost price. The law says an ISP has to serve the whole city and not just one neighborhood, increasing the startup capital required by a factor of a hundred. The law prohibits adversarial interoperability, so you can't distribute your own apps unless you can manufacture your own phones.
Most monopolies don't come from natural causes.
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Of all the ways I can imagine self driving cars becoming a reality, Uber creating a fleet of honest to goodness self-driving taxis seems to be about the most far fetched.
On balance of probability, I think that is just a bullet point to keep the juicy AI flavoured investment funds flowing.
How can you call McDonald's predatory pricing? They have been cheap and profitable for decades.
At best you could try to argue that they make their money fleecing dumb "business owners" who pay for franchises.
> How can you call McDonald's predatory pricing? They have been cheap and profitable for decades.
Their pricing and food is a gimmick, didn't that movie The Founder and the subsequent articles from various outlets pretty much lineout how Mcdonald's actual business model relies on Property Management and franchising? [1]
The food, competitively priced (questionable food costs and sources are the bigger story not told) or not is only the hook/marketing costs to get you to show up in Corporate's business model, the real money is in leasing the property and the brand name to the Local owner.
Personally speaking, I had the misfortune of eating at Mcdonalds during this COVID shutdown on more than one occasion as grocery stores were closed by the time I got off work.
And other than nostalgia for what was once a haven of my childhood, I cannot bring myself to put that stuff into my body without feeling nausea afterward. Everything is overly sweet, or salty; I remember the pickles and the fries from the happy meal being pretty decent as a kid in the 90s that went down with the Hi-C orange soda, having had one of those value-meals ($15 is hardly a value mind you) as an adult with the same items was atrocious.
1: https://medium.com/@alexcjensen/forget-burgers-mcdonalds-is-...