Comment by shajznnckfke
4 years ago
I’m not big on trading individual stocks, but I own a bunch of long puts on Nikola. I don’t know any other company that seems as likely to go to zero (other than companies like Hertz, where everyone knows so the options are priced appropriately).
Be careful with those puts. It’s entirely possible to be right and still not be able to close out your position because the underlying is halted/delisted.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
I think the flood of retail investors with disposable income and government benefits is leading to absurdities in market pricing. See: Hertz skyrocketing after announcing bankruptcies.
After all, the stock has dropped 90%, how much lower can it go right?
Well, to the new investors, all the way to 0.
This is not even that. The parent is talking about the case where the stock does indeed go to zero and get de-listed from the exchange, in other words the market becomes rational. At that point, you're holding put options that are ridiculously in-the-money, but you can't execute or sell them to take your profit because the underlying stock is gone. So, your highly valuable stash of Nikola puts becomes worthless ...
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Halts are temporary (generally a few hours to a few days). If it's delisted from NASDAQ it will almost certainly move to another exchange (OTC / pink sheets) and the stock will still trade.
If the stock truly is wiped out and common shareholders equity is 0, you can exercise the put, receive 100x the strike value per contract, and deliver nothing.
Source: https://www.optionseducation.org/referencelibrary/faq/splits...
Yeah, I'm pretty confident Nikola is a total fraud that will go to zero but it's still hard to make money even knowing that.
How long will the fraud last? Isn't your return limited by the difference available under the put?
I generally stick to calls because it's way easier to make money in a company you know is good and it's easier to capture the upside (Peloton for me recently).
Market seems skewed this way, it's a lot harder to correct the price even when you know it's total bullshit. Seems likely to allow frauds to go on longer.
> Isn't your return limited by the difference available under the put
It is. Max profit when stock prices hits zero. It can be still a massive return compared to the premium invested.
Assuming the house of cards falls before expiration, of course.
Premiums are rather high on NKLA puts too.
How is Peloton a good company can you please explain?
- Really good product (most important).
- Subscription model makes sense and is sticky with good margins.
- Undercuts gyms while providing better experience.
- Well timed growth during pandemic.
If I use a product and think it's really excellent I'll check out the stock and the company. This has largely worked for Apple, Tesla (bought in 2012), and now Peloton.
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