Comment by Hypx
4 years ago
> Battery technology is improving at a far faster rate then hydrogen technology, its not even remotely close. By the time your predicted ' (1, maybe 2 iterations away)' happens, batteries will have made 5 iterations.
I'm curious what this is based on. Last I checked, the li-ion batteries of today are basically the same from the ones we had 10-15 years ago. Sure, a little more silicon, a little less cobalt, but ultimately the same chemistry.
The biggest change for fuel cells is that they're moving from science project to mass production. There will be easily orders of magnitude reduction in cost. While this won't go forever, for the foreseeable future we should see a much faster rate of change for fuel cells and not batteries.
> I'm curious what this is based on. Last I checked, the li-ion batteries of today are basically the same from the ones we had 10-15 years ago. Sure, a little more silicon, a little less cobalt, but ultimately the same chemistry.
The batteries chemistry has not improved that much but the density still improved. We were in a period where cost and manufacturing improved far faster then chemistry. But thanks to the investment in batteries there are improvements to the chemistry coming down the pipe.
Tesla is gone have DBE technology that should improve density by 10-20% at least. Full silicon anodes are being commercialized right now. Single Cristal Cathodes are gone come pretty soon. Thicker anodes are being increasingly worked on.
I think we are going to continue to go down the cost curve, both because of engineering and chemical improvements.
> The biggest change for fuel cells is that they're moving from science project to mass production. T
Where is that happening exactly? In all the fuel cell cars Toyota isn't selling very well?
Battery energy density hasn't moved much at all. At best, we're at around 270-280 Wh/kg, and that requires a huge departure from our early understanding of battery safety. The early BEVs were relatively safe, even in a severe accident where the cells are damaged. In modern BEVs, any puncture or damage to the cell is a fire hazard. We've pretty much accepted that all BEVs are extremely flammable. Tesla has nothing of note, and ultimately they're lying or greatly exaggerating what they have.
> Where is that happening exactly?
It is happening everywhere simultaneously. Right now, tens of billions of dollars are being invested in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Anyone who pays attention knows that the revolution is happening as we speak.