FWIW, the # of actual COVID cases in the US population is better estimated at ~15% [1]. Only counting verified cases drastically undercounts, because testing has always been very constrained, and many people don't have severe symptoms and therefore don't get tested.
Take a country with good surveillance and reliable death statistics. NZ and/or Australia will fit the bill.
The case fatality rate there is a touch above 3%, mostly in aged care deaths, but with enough in the lower age groups to give anyone who has a comorbidity and is above 40 a quickening of the pulse (854 deaths, 26,942 cases, positive test % has never breached 1% and generally been under half a % so incidence is likely to be close to reported cases).
US CFR at reported numbers isn’t far off 3% and if you take the Excess deaths figures that suggest there has already been more like 250,000 deaths, along with the missed cases, you’re probably closer to the mark.
Even if spread is confined tightly to younger age groups with lower death rates, there can be no serious person who believes close to 60m Americans have either previously or Are currently Infected.
Why do the CDC's seroprevalence studies [1] consistently show the estimated case counts are much higher than the reported cases (6x in NYC area, 5x in Philly, 9x higher in South Florida)?
Do you not think there is a strong correlation, everywhere around the world, in which people who have minor symptoms or people who have no symptoms do not get tested?
If the case fatality rate is actually 3%, how does a place like Singapore have >50k cases with fewer than 50 deaths? That seems impossible.
Most of the disruption has been the containment efforts not the dead or sick themselves though. The damage has come from the 12 percentage points of growth in the unemployment rate. It was attenuated a lot when there was the additional unemployment money.
FWIW, the # of actual COVID cases in the US population is better estimated at ~15% [1]. Only counting verified cases drastically undercounts, because testing has always been very constrained, and many people don't have severe symptoms and therefore don't get tested.
1: https://covid19-projections.com/us
You have to call bullshit in those numbers.
Take a country with good surveillance and reliable death statistics. NZ and/or Australia will fit the bill.
The case fatality rate there is a touch above 3%, mostly in aged care deaths, but with enough in the lower age groups to give anyone who has a comorbidity and is above 40 a quickening of the pulse (854 deaths, 26,942 cases, positive test % has never breached 1% and generally been under half a % so incidence is likely to be close to reported cases).
US CFR at reported numbers isn’t far off 3% and if you take the Excess deaths figures that suggest there has already been more like 250,000 deaths, along with the missed cases, you’re probably closer to the mark. Even if spread is confined tightly to younger age groups with lower death rates, there can be no serious person who believes close to 60m Americans have either previously or Are currently Infected.
What do you think the numbers are?
Why do the CDC's seroprevalence studies [1] consistently show the estimated case counts are much higher than the reported cases (6x in NYC area, 5x in Philly, 9x higher in South Florida)?
Do you not think there is a strong correlation, everywhere around the world, in which people who have minor symptoms or people who have no symptoms do not get tested?
If the case fatality rate is actually 3%, how does a place like Singapore have >50k cases with fewer than 50 deaths? That seems impossible.
1: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?#serology-surveill...
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Most of the disruption has been the containment efforts not the dead or sick themselves though. The damage has come from the 12 percentage points of growth in the unemployment rate. It was attenuated a lot when there was the additional unemployment money.