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Comment by Jarwain

4 years ago

It's not that you're expecting 60% of your flips to be heads, but the coin has a 60% probability of being heads.

The former implies that previous flips have an effect on future flips. Or that, if you land on heads 6 times in a row, then the probability of it landing on tails goes up. How would a coin that's weighted to increase the odds of it landing on heads, somehow start landing on tails more frequently?

If you flip a normal coin and it lands on heads 10 times, you still have a 50% chance of getting heads the 11th time. The odds of it landing on heads 10 times in a row in the first place is vanishingly small (0.5^10 or 0.097%). But if it Does, the 11th flip still has a 50% chance. The first 10 flips don't affect the 11th. Physically, how Would the first 10 flips affect the 11th?

This is all assuming that the coin flips aren't somehow magically linked or casually dependent on each other. The math changes if the previous coin flip could somehow affect the next one. But in a situation where every single roll of the dice is purely independent, then by definition (Because they are Independent ) a previous roll doesn't have an impact on future rolls