Comment by travisjungroth
4 years ago
If you see 60 heads in a row in the real world you've got a trick coin. The odds of that are 1/10^17.
4 years ago
If you see 60 heads in a row in the real world you've got a trick coin. The odds of that are 1/10^17.
It's certainly low odds, but it's not impossible nor does it require a trick coin. I've seen people roll a 20 on a d20 10 times in a row, and then not a single 20 the rest of the session on the same die. Shit happens, it's probability and it may be improbable but it isn't impossible.
If you see 60 heads in a row from a coin you’ve been informed is biased to produce heads on average 60% of the time, you'd need a pretty strong bases for trust in your information to not conclude that the most likely explanation is that the bias was underreported. Yes, its possible with the reported bias (or even if the bias was overreported), but that's not the most likely conclusion absent some pretty firm external evidence of the accuracy of the bias estimate you were provided with.
> I’ve seen people roll a 20 on a d20 10 times in a row, and then not a single 20 the rest of the session on the same die.
People rolling dice aren’t, even when they try to be, perfect randomizers, and with a maximally favorable result and an action which demonstrably repeats it, there’s a strong incentive to repeat the action as accurately as possible rather than even trying to be a perfect randomizer.
I don't believe you.
I mean, that's fine, it's an anecdote. If you'd like, take a few dice and set up cameras and an automatic rolling mechanism and see if there are any improbable sequences like alternation between two or three number or a long run of a single number, or a long run without a particular number appearing. Over enough trials you are likely to encounter these kinds of events.
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