Comment by freediver

I think AGI will remain out of reach. Even a simpler thing like level 5 self-driving, which is only like 0.3 AGI or something, will remain forever out of reach no matter how much compute we throw at it (though I also think that if we ever reach 0.3 AGI we will also reach 100%).

The reason is that the mundane world keeps surprising us everywhere we look and constantly keeps creating more questions than answers. Just look at the questions field of quantum mechanics is trying to tackle, but also every other field of research science - astronomy, genetics, biology, antropology even mathematics... Now imagine trying to keep up with all that - by writing code.

Also, mastering these things would make us 'God'.