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Comment by oceanplexian

4 years ago

> Big companies are drowning in market data. They know some people really, really want small phones. But it's a long-tail opportunity they're willfully ignoring

I would argue that they don’t know what people want at all, since market data just reinforces previously held assumptions. For example if you surveyed people in 2006 what kind of phone they wanted, most consumers would probably ask for a better flip phone. It wasn’t until Apple came along and defined a new market that Smartphones even became a thing in the mainstream consciousness.

Smaller screened smartphones aren't a new market that needs to be defined though. Most people know what they are by virtue of having lived through the era that they were the only choice.

And as OP pointed out, Apple makes a smaller screened smartphone, so they exist. In some comment on this post someone said that it accounts for 3% of Apple's phone sales.

How big is the group of people that want a smaller smart phone but aren't willing or able to switch to Apple? Who knows. My intuition says not many, but maybe we'll find out through OP's efforts. I'm an iPhone user and the only reason I haven't switched to something like the iPhone Mini is because I want the better camera on the pro's.

  • I suspect there are two constraints working against mini mobiles:

    1. The industry push for thin due to the consumer dislike of thick.

    2. The invisible consumer expectation that smaller mobiles should be cheaper.

    A mini screen with a fat body (large battery, good camera) is what many functionally oriented people should want, but cost and form will limit consumer desire and make it an extremely niche product?!?

    Edit: I am thinking more Canon IXUS cross bred with a 20000mAh powerbank and stock Android One. In fact Canon or another reliable camera brand would be the perfect manufacturer. Fat and robust could work: sell the functionally ugly to practical tradesmen type? Unfortunately writer desires thin and light, which I don’t care about. No need for front-facing camera, instead put a 1” (4:3?) screen on the side of the main camera to allow for pointing/framing when doing selfies.

    Functionally oriented people often have other constraints. I have tight constraints for mobiles: I am price sensitive (I break or lose phones), I want vanilla Android (manufacturer skinned often has broken upgrades & broken privacy & broken features), and I generally won’t buy products from extremely niche brands (unpredictable reliability, & trust issues).

  • Apple's limited success is not only a factor of the screen size but also market positioning. The mini is inferior in some specs to other iPhones but at the same time really high end as far as mobiles in general go. That makes it a niche product even if screen size was not a factor at all.

    It targets people that have plenty of cash for a flagship but are willing to forego the top tier specs for a smaller size. Apple prefers you just buy the pro. And if you don't have much cash you can get the reheated 2017 iphone 8 with SE slapped on it :)

    I bet if they made a mini T the price of an SE with a more limited camera and screen spec than the current mini it would take 50% of SE sales away.

    You can't judge the market viability of one aspect based on a single model.

    • The mini is inferior in some specs to other iPhones

      I’m typing this on my iPhone 13 mini; saying it’s inferior to the rest of the iPhone 13 is an overstatement.

      All of the core features are the same as they rest of the line.

      Ironically it’s the largest iPhone I’ve owned, having upgraded from an iPhone 7 and a 6s before that.

      There probably won’t be iPhone 14 mini, so I’m glad I was able to get this form factor before I had no choice.

      11 replies →

    • Even the small phone user base is probably fragmented between people who want a lower cost phone and people like me that want the Pro or better, just smaller.

      6 replies →

    • Indeed, I desperately want a smaller phone, but I heavily use the camera on my phone and in the end I decided I wasn't willing to give up camera quality for the iPhone Mini. So Apple's data may suggest that I don't want a small phone, but the reality is that I want a small phone that's actually as good as the big ones. No one has offered that.

      2 replies →

    • > The mini is inferior in some specs to other iPhones but at the same time really high end as far as mobiles in general go. That makes it a niche product even if screen size was not a factor at all.

      I feel like it being smaller is a factor in it having inferior specs: much easier to fit a better camera etc into a larger body.

  • > How big is the group of people that want a smaller smart phone but aren't willing or able to switch to Apple?

    It just feels like surely capturing 100% of the market for premium small Android phones (there really are none right now) must be at least as good as yet another large Android phone entering a market full of large Android phones.

  • None of the leaked specs (if real) for iPhone 14 include a "Mini" variant, so it looks like Apple killed theirs.

    I'm going to buy a 13 Mini because of Apple's long term support, so it should last me a good few years.

    • I do not care if they do not make a new mini every year. I just want a mini available for purchase, and the 13 mini should be very capable for at least a few more years.

      2 replies →

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford.

However, in this day and time when it comes to established tech such as a smart phone, sometimes the best way to 'innovate' might be to give people what they actually want. Sure not all companies can cater all niches. But hopefully someone will! Im also a small phone advocate.

  • “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford.

    Just a note that this quote, and a similar one by Steve Jobs (‘Market research could never have given us the Macintosh’) are amongst the most misinterpreted in history. Most people see them as saying ‘market research is useless’ - what both were actually saying is that you need to take a new innovation to the customer and _then_ ask them what they think of it.

    So no, don’t just flat out ask people what they want - but intuit and give people a little taste of what they could have - and then ask them what they think.

    • What people think say and do are 3 mostly unrelated things. so yes it really fits into whole life really.

  • Also horses that could run at 100mph for 5 hours at a time would be far better than early cars. They run on clean renewable fuel, have built in natural intelligence to avoid crashes and carry drunk drivers, and come in a variety of pleasing colors (not just black!).

    The main benefit of cars was that if you delay maintenance your transportation doesn’t die.

>For example if you surveyed people in 2006 what kind of phone they wanted, most consumers would probably ask for a better flip phone.

Better flip phone would be good too.

  • Samsung make one called the Z-flip. Way too expensive for me, but to me it's the better flip phone I've been waiting for since 2005!

    • I have the Z-Flip 3 and love it. It meets the 2 criteria of the post's 4 that matter to me:

      1.fits nicely in pocket. I can sit down comfortably with it in a pair of jeans. No dodgy posture.

      2. Won't fall out of my pocket

      Its screen is also much less likely to break like has happened with all my old phones when they accidentally fall out of jacket pocket

      2 replies →

Apple has market data - they sold a premium small phone for two years. Rumors are that they will be discontinuing them this year.

  • It was almost premium. Still didn't had Pros camera.

    Real example was Pixel until version 4. The only difference between smaller and bigger versions was the obvious screen and battery.

    • That’s splitting hairs. Premium ≠ Best in all components. And the iPhone 12 and 13 have sold pretty well by all reports so the screen size is the only differentiator feature wise. (And battery which is unavoidable)

Last month I had to use an Essentials PH-1 phone for a day while i waited for a new phone. It was the perfect size for me and the build quality was really nice. Unfortunately, the OS was outdate and the specs not as high. It has 4GB RAM, Snapdragon 825, 13MP camera @ 2160p and a 5.7" display.

It looked premium, it felt premium and was the perfect size. If someone could pack more punch with specs in that phone I would buy it for even $1k.

I’ve owned smart phones since the treo.

I’ve owned blackberry phones, windows mobile, even a palm pre.

I’ve had nearly every iPhone since launch.

I’m on an iPhone 13 Pro Max.

Nothing makes me yearn for a smaller screen.

I held an iPhone 3G in my hand last week after finding it in a drawer and was amazed at how it felt too small to be really useful these days.

My gal has a 13 pro max.

My folks have larger phones.

My siblings have larger phones.

My friends, colleagues, business partners, clients, all have larger phones.

The biggest complaint I hear is battery life.

I hope small screen fans find what they want but I do not believe it’s a big market.

  • The reason it's not a big market is that if glove-sizing worked the same way as phones, you'd have people with small glove size walking around in ginormous gloves. That's not the case because glove sizing actually behaves rationally, as opposed to truck-sizing, where every human in America wants a ginormous truck regardless of their actual need. Sadly, phones follow trucks, not gloves, because the former is ego-driven, not need-driven. Apple deserves credit for recognizing the counter-example to its own market presence and engages fully around it while no competitor follows suit.

  • Agreed. When I bought the original Samsung Galaxy Note, my friends all thought it was hilariously, ridiculously, impractically large. It was smaller than my current Pixel 5.

    Yes, this phone is hard to use one handed, but the value of the large screen outweighs everything else.

"They" say that people just don't by the smaller iPhone. People always go for the larger + cheaper thing.

Apple has weird economics where I'm sure they profit handsomely from iPhone Mini, but they tend to get rid of things if they don't make $10b annually.

> most consumers would probably ask for a better flip phone

I'm not sure about that, sidekicks, plan and blackberry were pretty popular and gaining a lot of mainstream interest for modern 'smartphone' type things

Unfortunately it has been tested. Rumors say that there won't be an iPhone 14 mini. (Sent from an iPhone 12 mini).