← Back to context Comment by throwk8s 4 years ago Is the math meaningful though? 9 comments throwk8s Reply JumpCrisscross 4 years ago > Is the math meaningful though?"Meaningful" is squishy. Is it strongly predictive, and in some cases, definitive? Yes. state_less 4 years ago If we could all get a stable (guaranteed) 15% per year, everyone would invest. But the world economy doesn’t grow at 15%. tjs8rj 4 years ago The US economy doesn’t grow at 7% a year but that’s what the s&p is expected to do hrunt 4 years ago Well, the S&P (assuming the S&P 500) doesn't represent the entire US economy, but 500 companies that represent, arguably, the "winners" of the US economy, so expecting them to grow 7% while the entire economy as a whole grows less is not unexpected. 2 replies → vkou 4 years ago Population growth + inflation + transfer of wealth from workers to capital owners + productivity gains has over the long run been pretty close to 7%. simonh 4 years ago To the same extent that money is meaningful.
JumpCrisscross 4 years ago > Is the math meaningful though?"Meaningful" is squishy. Is it strongly predictive, and in some cases, definitive? Yes.
state_less 4 years ago If we could all get a stable (guaranteed) 15% per year, everyone would invest. But the world economy doesn’t grow at 15%. tjs8rj 4 years ago The US economy doesn’t grow at 7% a year but that’s what the s&p is expected to do hrunt 4 years ago Well, the S&P (assuming the S&P 500) doesn't represent the entire US economy, but 500 companies that represent, arguably, the "winners" of the US economy, so expecting them to grow 7% while the entire economy as a whole grows less is not unexpected. 2 replies → vkou 4 years ago Population growth + inflation + transfer of wealth from workers to capital owners + productivity gains has over the long run been pretty close to 7%.
tjs8rj 4 years ago The US economy doesn’t grow at 7% a year but that’s what the s&p is expected to do hrunt 4 years ago Well, the S&P (assuming the S&P 500) doesn't represent the entire US economy, but 500 companies that represent, arguably, the "winners" of the US economy, so expecting them to grow 7% while the entire economy as a whole grows less is not unexpected. 2 replies → vkou 4 years ago Population growth + inflation + transfer of wealth from workers to capital owners + productivity gains has over the long run been pretty close to 7%.
hrunt 4 years ago Well, the S&P (assuming the S&P 500) doesn't represent the entire US economy, but 500 companies that represent, arguably, the "winners" of the US economy, so expecting them to grow 7% while the entire economy as a whole grows less is not unexpected. 2 replies →
vkou 4 years ago Population growth + inflation + transfer of wealth from workers to capital owners + productivity gains has over the long run been pretty close to 7%.
> Is the math meaningful though?
"Meaningful" is squishy. Is it strongly predictive, and in some cases, definitive? Yes.
If we could all get a stable (guaranteed) 15% per year, everyone would invest. But the world economy doesn’t grow at 15%.
The US economy doesn’t grow at 7% a year but that’s what the s&p is expected to do
Well, the S&P (assuming the S&P 500) doesn't represent the entire US economy, but 500 companies that represent, arguably, the "winners" of the US economy, so expecting them to grow 7% while the entire economy as a whole grows less is not unexpected.
2 replies →
Population growth + inflation + transfer of wealth from workers to capital owners + productivity gains has over the long run been pretty close to 7%.
To the same extent that money is meaningful.