look - there are companies out there - Renaissance for one - who do make very good returns consistently. The difference is that not all returns are infinite. in fact, most good investments are finite - the market eventually catches on and then prices equilibrate. saying that there are no guaranteed 20% returns does not mean that with hard work and good strategy there are not 20% returns to be made on some arbitrary amount of principal at any given time.
put another way, its easy to earn 20% on a dollar. its hard to earn 20% on a billion dollars.
What the fuck are you talking about? The Renaissance medallion fund isn't open to the public and is no longer generating double digit returns as of 2020 or 2021. Much of their performance can be attributed to the fact that they just didn't pay their taxes. A $6.8 billion fine just doesn't cut it in the face how much money they were making. The Medallion fund saw $11 billion in net outflows due to low returns in 2021. Their funds that are open to the public regularly offer negative and low single digit returns annually. Please do tell us more about how efficient this market.
I was talking about the topic at hand: the possibility of consistent good rate of return. You are right - medallion has had some hard times recently. But, prior to that, it generated very good returns for a while.
You are not addressing the substance of my comment, namely that many investments are finite, and this is why infinite riskless investments don't work.
Market makers/HFT firms can have astronomical returns, hundreds of percents is not uncommon depending on how capital intensive the strategies are. The returns don't compound since strategies in this space are usually very capital constrained.
look - there are companies out there - Renaissance for one - who do make very good returns consistently. The difference is that not all returns are infinite. in fact, most good investments are finite - the market eventually catches on and then prices equilibrate. saying that there are no guaranteed 20% returns does not mean that with hard work and good strategy there are not 20% returns to be made on some arbitrary amount of principal at any given time.
put another way, its easy to earn 20% on a dollar. its hard to earn 20% on a billion dollars.
What the fuck are you talking about? The Renaissance medallion fund isn't open to the public and is no longer generating double digit returns as of 2020 or 2021. Much of their performance can be attributed to the fact that they just didn't pay their taxes. A $6.8 billion fine just doesn't cut it in the face how much money they were making. The Medallion fund saw $11 billion in net outflows due to low returns in 2021. Their funds that are open to the public regularly offer negative and low single digit returns annually. Please do tell us more about how efficient this market.
https://www.pionline.com/hedge-funds/renaissance-technologie...
I was talking about the topic at hand: the possibility of consistent good rate of return. You are right - medallion has had some hard times recently. But, prior to that, it generated very good returns for a while.
You are not addressing the substance of my comment, namely that many investments are finite, and this is why infinite riskless investments don't work.
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Market makers/HFT firms can have astronomical returns, hundreds of percents is not uncommon depending on how capital intensive the strategies are. The returns don't compound since strategies in this space are usually very capital constrained.
And they're also context constrained, so highly-successful strategies don't work indefinitely.