Comment by djbebs
3 years ago
It's frankly astounding to me how these people can fall for their own bullshit.
Really? No protest with over 3.5% of the population has ever failed? Really?
I can think of 2 of the top of my head, the Catalonia independence protests and referendum, and the Hong Kong protests.
In both cases there was a significantly higher portion than 3.5% actively protesting, and what was the result? I dont see an independent Hong Kong or Catalunya anywhere, do you?
The fact of the matter is that violence is the Supreme authority from which all other authority is derived.
A protest where non-violence is guaranteed from the outset is a losing proposition against any determined opponent, and when protesting about things that matter that opponent will always be determined.
I suppose that a better outcome for this study would be "in matters where the outcome has no significant impact on the decision makers, a 3.5% threshold is sufficient to enact a change in the status quo".
Congrats, you spent all that effort and resources to get the political equivalent of a paint job.
Hong Kong is a drop in the ocean of China, not even 1%. The numerator doesn’t get to choose the denominator.
I don’t have a sense for the Catalonian crisis. What fraction of the 7m Catalonians were active vs the 49m of Spain? I suspect not much more than 3-4%
That feels like a moving goalpost. When your >3.5% protest fails, just redefine the denominator to make it <=3.5%.
It may feel that way but I think the commenter hit the nail on the head. The 3.5% of the population that the ruling group cares a out isn't 3.5% of some cities pop or even regions pop. It's all their constituents. I wonder if Hong Kong and Catalan had broad support outside of their local region if the outcome would be difference.
I wonder about the Scottish independence movement. Brexit could be an example where it was much higher than 3.5% but the outcome was close to the other direction.
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If the model is that nonviolent protest is always effective if we cross a certain threshold, but that every citizen of Hong Kong could be in the streets without crossing that threshold, this model is meaningless.
Nonviolent protests are critical and can absolutely bring about change, but it is a brutal and drawn out process and not some kind of magic bullet.
By that same metric, the same holds true for violent protests.
Some protests are doomed regardless of if they are violent or not. Some can only succeed if they are violent, some can only succeed if they are nonviolent.
I am not aware of any successful violent protests. I know of some violent revolutions, but if you go there, you better make sure you can actually compete with the opposition.
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