Comment by hnfong

I think both of you are "wrong". I'll explain.

The original trigger for the Hong Kong 2019 protests was a bill that allowed the government to approve ad-hoc extraditions to any other jurisdiction. On the surface this bill was 100% within the affairs of the local HKSAR government, and nobody in other parts of China was affected or really gave a damn whether it passed or not.

Carrie Lam, then Chief Executive, tried to get the bill passed by pulling Beijing into the picture. Given the tensions between Beijing and the common Hong Kong people at the time, it quickly escalated to a "national security" issue.

Note that, eventually, the original proposed extradition bill died a slow painful death. The original bill was a local issue, it failed, and hence the 3.5% rule held. (Hence it is incorrect to state that the protest failed. It wasn't a complete failure in this sense. Pyrrhic victory though.)

The independence movement (if you can call it that) obviously failed and protesters were rounded up by the hundreds (lots of riots trials pending). I don't know whether the failure is just due to the huge denominator of the whole Chinese population though. It's certainly a factor, but if you ask me, the stakeholders are not only all the Chinese people, but also international forces that have a vested interest in keeping the status quo in Hong Kong. Much like how the stance of USA influences Taiwan's status.