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Comment by JohnJamesRambo

3 years ago

GDP can’t go up without strong reproduction and/or immigration. The economy stagnates and government debt becomes massive, which is what you see with Japan.

The scary thing is that this is something the USA and lots of other countries are headed towards as well.

https://dailyinfographic.com/government-debt-by-country

4 comments

JohnJamesRambo

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mrep  3 years ago

GDP can grow with a stable population if your Real gross domestic product per capita is growing which it has been for the USA [0]. Japans has barely grown for the past 30 years which is their big problem [1].

[0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

[1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPPCAPKDJPN

  • JohnJamesRambo  3 years ago

    What do you think the cause is for the differences? I strongly feel that a lot of that latter “strength” for the USA chart after 2009 was made up of money printing.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

    https://inflationchart.com/gdp-in-m3

    I guess we will see if USA can continue up only. I have my doubts. Fertility rate needs to be 2.1 to remain stable and we dipped below 2.0 around 2010 and are at 1.64 now (Japan is 1.34). The previous US administration clown show also drastically cut immigration.

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/global-decline-of-fer...

    • logicalmonster  3 years ago

      > The previous US administration clown show also drastically cut immigration.

      What if restricting immigration for a time is what is needed to start to stabilize the birth rate which ultimately takes care of the economy?

      Many Americans aren't focusing on making babies because they're hopeless about their future and ever having a home so they put off thinking about having a family until as late as possible. What if a more modest amount of immigration (lowering demand for housing) helps put home ownership and hope for the future into more peoples' reach? A little reduction in real-estate prices might piss off some boomers who have a lot of wealth locked into their home, but these aren't the people who are going to be reproducing.

      Cause and effect are sometimes related in unexpected ways, but this chain of thinking about this problem seems entirely simple and rational.

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