Comment by kqr
4 years ago
Can people please attach probabilities to their predictions? That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. Doing so is literally impossible without probabilities assigned.
4 years ago
Can people please attach probabilities to their predictions? That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. Doing so is literally impossible without probabilities assigned.
> That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did.
How exactly do you propose to do that given the binary knowledge of the event occuring or not...
Let's say somebody makes a prediction that something will happen, and it doesn't. You could evaluate the prediction differently if they gave it a 55% chance of happening vs a 95% chance.
Over many repeated experiments that might provide useful.
But what if I predict with 100% certainty heads, and the coin comes up heads. Did we learn anything "useful" about my prediction?
1 reply →
I guess you could attach the probability as weight to the event outcome, instead of taking a uniform mean. Not that without probabilities it’s “impossible”, it’s just a different metric