Comment by logicallee
4 years ago
- Undisputed AGI chatbot. It doesn't get confused or off track anymore, no longer hallucinates false information confidently, and can handle any generic task at around 100 IQ (ChatAGP's current IQ is around 83.) There are no longer any questions that it is AGI, it is undisputed.
- but it still can't assemble a sandwich for you because no cheap household robot hands. People realize that they could get a lot more value out of their assistant if it could actually do anything for them where they are and this area gets more research interest.
- Breakthrough treaty between Taiwan and China.
- p2p trust-based currency that is more resilient to scams by using a trust network, making the game more like iterative prisoner's dilemma and by involving trust/karma becoming more useful and less scammy.
- NFT's go to 0. People realize all NFT's are worthless, produce no utility for them, and are not at all like physical art. (However crypto currencies remain strong.)
> Breakthrough treaty between Taiwan and China.
This is impossible on several levels. Most Chinese citizens are 100% convinced that Taiwan is a breakaway province and the mere idea of its independence is extremely offensive. Even if Xi himself were amenable to the idea of a treaty (which he is not — rather, he sees the “reclamation” of Taiwan as his opportunity to write himself into the history books), his government would not be so foolish as to shoot itself in the head.
I think he meant a treaty of quasi independence yet on face a special autonomous region of China for Taiwan.
And your assessment is right. It is unimaginable for any leader of CCP to grant independent state to Taiwan. He would be buried by party members and mainland Chinese.
This sort of treaty still needs to be approved by China's parliament. Though in most cases it is a just formality for parliament to approve any treaties but when it comes to a treaty that grants independence of Taiwan, vast majority of parliament members would object it.
And please be aware that Chinese people do go to street. Recent demonstrations in multiple cities and universities against endless covid lock downs proved it.
Oh yes, I didn’t mean that protests never happen — I was in one of the cities with protests as they were happening. I only meant that I think it’s unlikely we’ll see more large-scale protests related to Covid.
Edit: and thank you for your first-hand input on Taiwan.
2024: AGI is relegated to sandwich making, putting it on parity with humans.