Comment by cmrdporcupine

At least one round of layoffs at Google

Return to office in most companies. Reduction in remote hiring, but "remote only" companies will persist to take advantage of more diverse labour pool.

Significant drop in tech compensation, but especially in the Bay Area.

Further collapse of crypto/web3. Some major VC who has been heavily pushing it will announce their divestment from further ventures.

Some amount of intensified public/cultural backlash against LMM type AI. Bitter lawsuits, especially around CoPilot.

Significant drops in real estate prices in places that have seen overheated prices for the last decade or two (in particular Toronto, Vancouver).

Significant rise in unemployment rate, beginnings of an official recession by mid or late year. Inflation will drop. Potential major drop in oil prices as demand slackens. Perhaps leading to some political/economic troubles in governments heavily dependent on energy export revenues but this may not happen until 2024.

Major shift to austerity in western/G7 countries, administered by both "right wing" and "progressive" governments. Similar to mid-90s. Effort to instil "labour discipline", rises in productivity, and major policy efforts to resist wage increases and unionization.

End of interest rate increases, setting things up for cuts in 2024.

Winter intensification of war in Ukraine leads to a stalemate at pretty much the current occupied areas. By mid or late year a "peace" deal will be arrived at -- with some territory lost by Ukraine (but maybe the return of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) but a humiliating lack of major progress on its "goals" by Russia. Both parties frustrated will simply use the pause in hostilities to heavily re-arm.