Comment by Arete314159

The situation in China, which is just now beginning, will lead to deaths at a previously unimaginable scale. Estimates of deaths in the next 12 weeks range from 500,000, to 2 million, to > 10 million.

With most of China too ill to work, the supply chain issues we saw in 2020 will come roaring back, twice as badly.

New variants will come out of this infectious maelstrom and burn their way across the world.

I don't know what happens after that. Either we'll continue trying to live in denial, or things will take a turn for a worse with the virus and the powers that be will have a come to Jesus moment -- at which point we'll finally see action on using upper-room UV and mandates with N95 masking.

But if finances -- and insurance policies -- permit, I would definitely stock up on anything essential for life such as medicines and medical supplies. Many drugs and drug precursors are made in China, and they're not going to be shipping out any time soon.

In the West, the number of previously-healthy, young people suddenly dropping dead of post-Covid heart attacks and strokes will become too noticeable to ignore. However, reactions to this will vary. There may be denial. There may be people blaming it on the vaccine. A general fearfulness may turn into anger and scapegoating.

In other news, house values drop >10% in some markets.

Big swings happen in commodities, but I'm not clever enough to predict which ones or in what directions -- only that there will be volatility.