Comment by narrator
4 years ago
The Russians can't negotiate with the Ukrainians, so their only alternative is total domination by violence. I think the west miscalculated how much the Russians had modernized and their war production capacity. The fight is much more difficult than they expected.
The average Ukrainian is probably at the point where they feel Russian domination would be better than more years of war given the extreme measures men are taking to make it out of the country and avoid the draft. The average Ukrainian can't say anything about it though because the SBU will kill them.
This is a weird narrative. It is almost as though you have take every fact about the war and turned it on its head.
1. Russia can certainly end the war any time it wants. They can simply move their forces back behind historical borders. 2. I have no idea where you’re getting your ideas about what Ukraine believes. It seems that you may have read headlines about men fleeing Russia’s mobilization and find/replaced the word Ukraine.
I don’t know if this is the famous “Russian propaganda trolling” we’re always reading about online, or if you’re just an amateur who spent too much time in the wrong corners of the Internet.
I have been saying the Russians were going to win since day 1 since I've followed their weapons development and capabilities deployed in Libya and Syria. I read pro-Russian telegram channels, but I read the mainstream western news too and in any situation where the two disagreed, the pro-Russian channels were later vindicated most of the time.
The west is absolutely slaughtering Russia when it comes to the propaganda war 100%. When it comes to the war of kinetic violence, Russia seems to be winning. The funny thing about the western perception of the war is that they believe you can win any war with only propaganda. That, and it's like 80% of the war. The Russians perception is that violence in 80% of war and propaganda is 20%.
My financial interest is in keeping Russia a slave state to the petrodollar which involves us winning. It would be very bad for my investments if we could no longer export inflation or trash other countries economies when we raise our rates. The petrodollar has been good to me, but this time I think they really got in over their heads and done fucked up. I will be amazed and mystified if they somehow pull a rabbit out of their hat here and win the war. I guess I should keep it down because there are children here who might be demoralized with this kind of talk, but I always viewed HN as an adult corner of the internet where we don't have to be so discrete. ;)
That you think I'm some sort of paid Russian troll is totally hilarious honestly. How many years of "Trump is a Russian asset" did we have and absolutely nothing came out of all of the innuendos and leaks and all that stuff. The left in America is the new full-on Doctor Strange love paranoid war party these days.
Oh hey, not my prediction, but I heard someone say John Bolton might win 2024 because America will be so backed into a corner by the losses in Ukraine that we'll be whipped up in a frenzy to reconquer the world.
Is this part of your dystopian novel?
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> I think the west miscalculated how much the Russians had modernized and their war production capacity.
There are still no signs of this.
> The average Ukrainian is probably at the point where they feel Russian domination would be better than...
Not sure after what has happened in Bucha and other places.
> I think the west miscalculated how much the Russians had modernized and their war production capacity
A main reason the Western governments initially delayed in supplying lethal aid when the 2022 major invasion started is that they expected that the Ukrainian government would immediately be destroyed replaced with a Russian puppet regime which would control whatever was donated.
They did not underestimate Russia’s capabilities.
Russia wants Ukranian genocide, and this is the second time that they try it in a generation. There is not any oxygen left for negotiation when the other part wants your head. After all this months of "special operation" Putin is not fooling anybody in Ukraine about his real intentions.
"Winning the war" will just mean to add a few km of ashes to Russia.
The objective of disarming Ukranie has failed spectacularly. The battle to keep Nato boundaries far from Rusia was lost when they messed with Swedden and Finland. The separatist areas could not rely on selling anything in the Ukranian market anymore and will need a lot of money to be reconstructed.
And the rest of the world will not trust Russia in a long, long time.
At this moment I can't see any good way out for Russia to detach themselves from the huge mess created by Putin