Comment by Ferret7446
3 years ago
On the contrary, it is solidly rooted in math. On average, and without other context, a random sample will be close to the middle.
Given a random sample of any thing at an arbitrary point in time, on average it will be in the middle of its lifetime. Something that is X years old will on average, continue for X more years. Of course, additional information lets you refine that estimate considerably, but it is mathematically sound and surprisingly applicable to everyday life (e.g. using a single serial number on a product to estimate total production).
> On average, and without other context, a random sample will be close to the middle.
The thing is, we typically have a lot of context for every technology we discuss, so bringing back this saying that reduces everything to one-dimension is just silly.
You typically don't, you just think you do much like how stock pickers think they know but end up failing to beat the market average. There's too many unknowns and variables to even come close to an educated guess.
If you are truly an expert, you have a fighting chance. As a human, that means you are limited to a tiny number of specific subject matters.