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Comment by jl6

3 years ago

That 70% energy loss in round trip conversion to hydrogen doesn’t look so bad if the alternative is 100% loss by not running the turbines.

That really depends on the capex of the hydrogen equipment. It has to be extremely low to justify not curtailing.

  • True.

    I suspect that grid-scale electrolysis is near the very bottom of the economies-of-scale-S-curve and will have a promising future not just in power2gas2power, but also in producing the green hydrogen inputs needed for synthetic hydrocarbon fuels for hard-to-electrify applications like aviation.

  • Technically it depends on the levelized cost of hydrogen, which encompasses capex, opex, and a slew of other relevant inputs. Similar "levelized cost" formulas are used throughout the utility sector to make these kinds of decisions; what makes green hydrogen unique is simply that it is undergoing a spike in research and development right now that is drastically changing some of the inputs to the LCOH equation.

    https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/46267.pdf

    • This are good models for roughly continual usage of the equipment, but they don't model the use cases of operating capacity factors less than 60% for electrolysis, and it's likely that the capacity factor of electrolysis equipment powered by excess wind would be <10%. At that point, the capex beings to dominate nearly all other factors.

      I in fact used to be somewhat optimistic about hydrogen as a long term storage mechanism for our excess renewables, until I saw models like these from NREL. Now I am extremely skeptical of any hydrogen from electrolysis unless it's from something like solar+storage facilities. (Which are actually being proposed now, which is very exciting!)

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  • Why are electrolyzers so expensive? The glass ones used in school labs are stupidly simple — just some glassware and a couple of electrodes — so why are they so expensive on an industrial scale?