Comment by jefftk
3 years ago
I wonder if we're disagreeing on what they thought the odds of an embarrassing incident were or whether those odds would have been acceptable to them?
The video is 3:44, and I think doesn't have any bits cut out. I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice and giving it extra data they could have gotten down to about odds of somewhere around 1:10k. And I think they would have accepted those odds.
(I would definitely not accept those odds, and would not want to ride in or near a car made by people who would. I'm glad that the law prevented them from doing runs without a safety driver at that stage. And I don't think they're anywhere near ready to do that today either.)
> I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice
Why practice? They did the run until it worked well for the video. It wasn't a demo with a live non-Tesla audience. In this case not working 9/10 times is good enough rather than 1/10000
They did practice, though?
The odds I'm talking about are not "it doesn't work as well as the video" but instead "things go horribly wrong in a public way".
There is no reason to think it was better than today's FSD even with those "crutches" (as I believe Elon himself refers to them when talking about other SDC companies), and the chance unsupervised FSD does something horribly wrong in a public way on real streets even in 3.4 miles is far higher than 10000:1 today. After all the car did hit a barrier during the making of this video. I doubt they spent much effort improving the odds when they had infinite takes.
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