Comment by sidibe
3 years ago
There is no reason to think it was better than today's FSD even with those "crutches" (as I believe Elon himself refers to them when talking about other SDC companies), and the chance unsupervised FSD does something horribly wrong in a public way on real streets even in 3.4 miles is far higher than 10000:1 today. After all the car did hit a barrier during the making of this video. I doubt they spent much effort improving the odds when they had infinite takes.
Looking around I see something like 6mi per disengagement [1] which, yes, is unacceptably high. The video is probably about 2mi, which naively would give 1:3. But disengagements have a large amount of precaution, so this isn't an accident rate. And some accidents wouldn't be ones they'd need to be public about, like the one in testing which only came out years later.
[1] https://electrek.co/2022/12/14/tesla-full-self-driving-data-...