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Comment by cperciva

19 years ago

I don't think my probability of failure is 90%. :-)

This isn't as naive as it sounds: If you take VC with standard liquidation preference terms, the company needs to do really well before you get anything back -- so the amount of money you need to avoid "failing" is dramatically increased.

In my case, since I don't intend to take any VC, there's a wide range between "failure" (making less money than I would have earned risk-free by working at the university for the same duration) and "success" (making enough money that I never need to work again).

Also, on a more self-serving note: I'm a heck of a lot more competent than 90% of startup founders. Or even 90% of YC-funded-startup founders for that matter -- and YC-funded startups have distinctly less than a 90% failure rate.

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cperciva

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create_account  19 years ago

Well, if you want to impress people with your startup prowess, you're better off succeeding in that context before bragging about it.

I have no opinion of you or your entrepreneurial abilities in the same way a physicist has no opinion of gravity.

If I can measure what you've done (e.g. in terms of customers, revenues, successful exit sale, etc.) then I'll respect you (or not).

ivankirigin  19 years ago

"Or even 90% of YC-funded-startup founders for that matter"

Not to deny this, as I don't know anything about you, but... that is a very bold statement.

  • cperciva  19 years ago

    Of course it's a bold statement. But if I wasn't bold, I wouldn't have started university at age 13, set three world records for calculating pi (a stunt, I admit), ranked in the top six mathematics undergraduates in North America, received a $100k+ scholarship to Oxford University (not the Rhodes, unfortunately -- their mistake), received a doctorate in computer science from said university, and become the security officer for the FreeBSD operating system.