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Comment by shkkmo

2 years ago

>Are you ignoring the fact that it might have a negative effect, rather than a protective effect?

Nope. We can be 95% confident that there is an effect for women but we can't be 95% certain that there is no effect for men.

Given that the error ranges overlap, we don't even have a high level of certainty that the effect for men doesn't equal the effect for women.

> The range for men is -1.9 to +2.1 -- which averages out to +0.2

Technically it averages out as +0.1

> we can't be 95% certain that there is no effect for men.

They're at P=0.93 right now. So they're very close.

Whereas, for women, P=0.0013.

Taking everything into consideration, that's exactly what I'd call "a high level of certainty that the effect for men doesn't equal the effect for women."

  • > They're at P=0.93 right now. So they're very close.

    A big P value is bad.

    > that's exactly what I'd call "a high level of certainty that the effect for men doesn't equal the effect for women."

    Then you are operating off a non-standard cutoff for certainty because the paper explicitly states that the difference between the effect on male vs female is only statistically significant for the sub category of Alzheimer's.