Comment by parasubvert
3 years ago
For sure, I get the point that photo taking exploded after 2011 or so. Just saying that growth in new product categories is non-linear, and often builds on the prior modest successes.
The VR headset business has been beset by boom/bust behavior (boom in 2016, led with the PSVR ; boom in 2020 led by the Meta Quest 2). It's seen as disappointing that it hasn't reached a sustainable mass market stable growth rate. But what's not broadly recognized is that it is still showing strong growth, just lumpy and subject to over inflated expectations. The Meta Quest 2 has sold 20 million units total, that's about half of the Sony PS5 and MORE than Microsoft sold of Xbox Series S|X consoles so far. it's also 400% higher than what we saw from the PSVR 's lifetime sales. now, global console (including VR) sales collapsed in late 2022 and layoffs followed, but... they're beating the Xbox, which is notable. Sony has now shipped the PSVR2 into a terrible market for game consoles and even they expect 1.5 million units to ship this year.
It's nothing compared to the iPhone, but nearly all products in history are nothing compared to the iPhone.
I would bet Apple can only make a small number of Vision Pros in 2024 (1-2 million?), and the price is more about the production limitations of this next generation of screen than the actual cost of goods. This stuff takes time. I would expect 2026 is when the mass market version is widely available.
It might take time. But we can't assume that. Like 3D movies or 3D TV, it might get pushed for a while on a wave of investor and corporate money before it goes back to being irrelevant. Sometimes a modest success is the harbinger of great success. Sometimes, as with the CueCat, it's the absolute peak.