Comment by lanstin
2 years ago
If there is any random variability in promotion guidelines or policies or even process, then the probability of advancing from level N to level N+1 approaches one over time. For many typical corporations, the policies change often enough that you will get promoted quite a bit higher than you intended, assuming of course you do your job, ensure that your work is useful, and get along with people reasonably well.
> over time
Is this the "if you type randomly type stuff you'll write Shakespeare given enough time" thing?
It might be true (though I doubt it), but the original claim is "by mid 40s". You also need to look at the overall statistics (i.e. percentage of people who made the promotion vs those who haven't), and while the projected ratio based on the previous company growth rates may still support the claim, it's quite clear double digit percentage growth YoY isn't infinitely sustainable...
Given infinite tenure which is not the case.
at least at the places i have worked, once the founders leave the policies churn a lot.