Hot take but I'll bite, what's your rationale? We're only ~9% down from VTI's ATH and what happens now doesn't matter when your investing horizon is 15+ years.
This is terrible advice BTW. I got it in 2007, also HN and FT forums convinced me. So I put significant savings in a couple of index funds. I lost 40% within months. Left it there and recovered only after 8 years (and that's not even adjusting for inflation or MM rate). Please be a bit more self-aware. I spent many years in finance and the more I learned, the more I realized how much I don't know.
If you're investing a chunk of every paycheck, you'll keep plowing money into the index fund through every dip, which historically makes up for the money you add at peaks. You can spend a few years derisking as you approach retirement, which is similarly not that susceptible to recessions.
- Recession now undeniably starting (several friends in Tech are losing their jobs in companies doing well)
- Ballooning deficits and debt at every level
- High rates making debt ballooning faster
- USD dominance decreasing
That's known and now not matter of opinion but hard facts. Now, where to invest? I have no idea (and I'm pretty sure traditional investment knowledge doesn't work anymore), so I do money markets and take the hit until I figure something out. Maybe there's a non-hype AI application opportunity somewhere, who knows. Worrying too much makes you do dumb life-altering things. In uncertain times, I chose to invest the time in enjoying life a bit. Wait and see.
Core inflation is going down, just not as fast as other sectors. People losing their jobs is not a hard fact of a recession, we have one of the lowest unemployment rates in history.
I'm just indexing and staying happy, worry free, it worked for the last 100 years and I'm sure it'll work for my lifetime.
Hot take but I'll bite, what's your rationale? We're only ~9% down from VTI's ATH and what happens now doesn't matter when your investing horizon is 15+ years.
This is terrible advice BTW. I got it in 2007, also HN and FT forums convinced me. So I put significant savings in a couple of index funds. I lost 40% within months. Left it there and recovered only after 8 years (and that's not even adjusting for inflation or MM rate). Please be a bit more self-aware. I spent many years in finance and the more I learned, the more I realized how much I don't know.
I don't think I'm following, you didn't "lose" anything if you didn't sell.
Even if you invested in 2007 at the peak and lost 50% of a 100% S&P500 portfolio by 2009, by now you'd be extremely wealthy, adjusting for inflation.
A $10k investment in 2007 is now worth $27k and that assumes you didn't contribute another penny for 16 years.
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If you're investing a chunk of every paycheck, you'll keep plowing money into the index fund through every dip, which historically makes up for the money you add at peaks. You can spend a few years derisking as you approach retirement, which is similarly not that susceptible to recessions.
1 reply →
- Core inflation not going down
- Recession now undeniably starting (several friends in Tech are losing their jobs in companies doing well)
- Ballooning deficits and debt at every level
- High rates making debt ballooning faster
- USD dominance decreasing
That's known and now not matter of opinion but hard facts. Now, where to invest? I have no idea (and I'm pretty sure traditional investment knowledge doesn't work anymore), so I do money markets and take the hit until I figure something out. Maybe there's a non-hype AI application opportunity somewhere, who knows. Worrying too much makes you do dumb life-altering things. In uncertain times, I chose to invest the time in enjoying life a bit. Wait and see.
Core inflation is going down, just not as fast as other sectors. People losing their jobs is not a hard fact of a recession, we have one of the lowest unemployment rates in history.
I'm just indexing and staying happy, worry free, it worked for the last 100 years and I'm sure it'll work for my lifetime.
1 reply →