Comment by hyperthesis
2 years ago
> Are humans limited to low-risk applications like that?
No, but arguably civilization consists of mechanisms to manage human fallibility (separation of powers, bicameralism, "democracy", bureaucracy, regulations, etc). We might not fully understand why, but we've found methods that sorta kinda "work".
> could have caused
That's why they didn't.
> No, but arguably civilization consists of mechanisms to manage human fallibility
Exactly. Civilization is, arguably, one big exercise in reducing variance in individuals, as low variance and high predictability is what lets us work together and trust each other, instead of seeing each other as threats and hiding from each other (or trying to preemptively attack). The more something or someone is unpredictable, the more we see it or them as a threat.
> (separation of powers, bicameralism, "democracy", bureaucracy, regulations, etc).
And on the more individual scale: culture, social customs and public school system are all forces that shape humans from the youngest age, reducing variance in thoughts and behaviors. Exams of all kind, including psychological ones, prevent high-variance individuals from being able to do large amount of harm to others. The higher the danger, the higher the bar.
There are tests you need to pass to be able to own and drive a car. There are tests you may need to pass to own a firearm. There are more tests still before you'll be allowed to fly an aircraft. Those tests are not there just to ensure your skills - they also filter high-variance individuals, people who cannot be safely given responsibility to operate dangerous tools.
Further still, the society has mechanisms to eliminate high-variance outliers. Lighter cases may get some kind of medical or spiritual treatment, and (with gates in place to keep them away from guns and planes) it works out OK. More difficult cases eventually get locked up in prisons or mental hospitals. While there are lot of specific things to discuss about the prison and mental care systems, their general, high-level function is simple: they keep both predictably dangerous and high-variance (i.e. unpredictably dangerous) people stashed safely away, where they can't disrupt or harm others at scale.
> We might not fully understand why, but we've found methods that sorta kinda "work".
Yes, we've found many such methods at every level - individual, familial, tribal, national - and we stack them all on top of each other. This creates the conditions that let us live in larger groups, with less conflicts, as well as to safely use increasingly powerful (i.e. potentially destructive) technologies.
I think you’re weighting the contribution of authority a bit too highly. The bad actors to be concerned about are a very small percentage of the population and we do need institutions with authority to keep those people at bay but it’s not like there’s this huge pool of “high variance” people that need to be screened out. The vast majority of people are extremely close in both opinion and ability, any semblance of society would be impossible otherwise.
> it’s not like there’s this huge pool of “high variance” people that need to be screened out. The vast majority of people are extremely close in both opinion and ability, any semblance of society would be impossible otherwise.
Yes, but I'm saying it's not an accident - I've mentioned mechanisms like culture, social customs, and education, which we've been using in some form for all our recorded history. I should've probably added violent conflicts within and between tribes/groups, too, which also acted to reduce variance, by culling the more volatile and less agreeable people. People today are "extremely close in both opinion and ability" because for the past couple thousands years, generation by generation, we've been busy reducing the variance of individuals.
EDIT: keeping high-variance individuals locked up safely away is just one of the methods we use, specifically to deal with outliers. It too traces back to the dawn of recorded history - shunning, expelling individuals from the tribe (which often meant certain death), sending them to faraway lands, or forcing them into war, were other common means past societies used to eliminate high-variance outliers.
As for authority, it's a separate topic - I argue that hierarchical governance is an artifact of scale: it's necessary to coordinate groups past certain size (~Dunbar's number), when our basic social intuitions are no longer up to the task. But the first level of hierarchy can handle only so many people, and if you want to coordinate multiple such groups, you need to add another layer... and that's how, over time, human societies scaled from tribes of couple dozen people, to nation states of hundreds of millions.
Even as the focus is usually on the national governments, the entire hierarchy is still there - you have states and lands/vovoidships/counties with their own governance, then another level for a major city and surrounding villages, then yet another level in each individual village, and one or two levels in the city itself, etc. We don't often pay attention to it, but the hierarchy of governance does reach down, in some form, all the way to groups of couple hundred people or less.