Comment by KSS42
2 years ago
That impact should show up in the plus/minus score?
https://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm
For 2022/23 Green ranks 38. His defensive impact is very high but it is offset by his negative offensive impact.
2 years ago
That impact should show up in the plus/minus score?
https://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm
For 2022/23 Green ranks 38. His defensive impact is very high but it is offset by his negative offensive impact.
Yeah that's what I meant by impact metrics. In the 2015-2017 playoff runs Green's impact is almost on-par with Curry. But for most people who watch basketball, they just look at the box score and don't look at advanced stats.
Not even just playoffs either, I think his rank in that three year RAPM range was fourth or something staggering, after Curry, Lebron, and I think Kawhi? My go-to RAPM site that did all the calculations was taken down so can’t currently cite the numbers
Standard plus minus is pretty crude since it obviously doesn’t filter out any context, and the ones that do[0] tend to be a better reflection of a player’s impact in their given role, not their overall quality, which is something that drives me up a wall with the nba analytics crowd.
It’s easy to fall victim to the McNamara fallacy (I’ve certainly been guilty of it), before you start understanding the innumerable intricacies in the domain. And basketball is the only domain I probably know better than 99% of HNers lol.
That being said, GP’s general point about Draymond is very true. Yes he’s one of the best defensive players of all time and one of the smartest as well. I think the main point is his incredible self awareness (yes get the jokes off). On defense it’s more subtle, such as not over committing and leaving his man etc but on offense is where it’s obvious. As his own shooting has fallen off a cliff, more and more when he’s dribbling unguarded he frantically looks around for Steph or klay to flow into a dribble hand off to pry them free for a shot.
He’s talked extensively about the criticism he’s faced for lack of shot attempts, with his rational being why would he ever shoot if he can instead try to get Steph a shot. He’s also mentioned if Klay hasn’t touched the ball in a few possessions, he makes sure to get Klay the ball with at least a decent look; otherwise the next time Klay gets the ball he’s shooting it regardless of how bad the shot is. He also frequently pushes the break[1] to catch the defense off guard and before they can set up.
He is still a negative offensively, but why I appreciate draymond so much is for the above reasons and the myriad other subtleties he does to maximize his benefit to the team and diminish the detrimental elements of his.
And lastly, standard plus minus is still a hell of a lot better than box score garbage, I don’t mean to crap on it.
[0]: https://squared2020.com/2017/09/18/deep-dive-on-regularized-...
[1]: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/onoff.php?season=2022&tea...
(Steph actually ranked higher than Dray last year in pace (seconds per possession) on/off which is why separating Draymond himself is so difficult. Their relationship is certainly symbiotic, but Draymond is the one that optimizes for best interplay of their skills)