Comment by antonvs
3 years ago
> It's the best option
That's not an answer.
> it would be plausible to put success at 40%.
No, it wouldn't. You just made up that number based on nothing.
We have a good amount of experience with provability in software, and its limitations are well-known. Tegmark et al. seem to me just to be waving the magic pixie dust of "AI will solve this", and making unlikely claims, with no real substance.
I was asking what about what they're saying makes you think that "it's the best option", but it's clear I'm not going to get a useful answer from you.
If it's not the best option, what is? It's the only method where I think you would be able to detect failures before the AI system is running. RLHF and "Constitutional AI" absolutely can't do that with current neural network analysis methods.