Comment by hackerlight
2 years ago
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on what Israel should do from here. Presumably you want a ceasefire, but then what?
The problem from Israel's perspective regarding a ceasefire is that Hamas isn't just an ideology that can be charmed out of existence with good behavior. It's also an autocratic/theocratic government. These government structures don't go away even if the conditions that lead to their initial support are addressed, because they have a regime survival incentive to maintain power. For example, Iran. Some of the reasons (colonial interference) that caused the Iranian revolution are no longer there, but the governance structure is nevertheless perpetual because that's how autocracies work.
Maybe Hamas can moderate in the future, but this moderation historically has happened after the nationalist (and in this case, irredentist) aims are fulfilled, such as in Vietnam or with the IRA. I don't know if that can happen with the continued existence of Israel and lack of right of return, which, let's face it, it's a pipe dream, Jews will never accept being an ethnic minority after the last few thousand years of endless pogroms including from MENA countries, literal survival will always trump everything else. Right or wrong, that's the reality, and we only have reality to work with.
I lean towards the idea that Israel shouldn't invade but instead build a DMZ around Gaza to contain Hamas. While simultaneously sowing the seeds for peace in the next generation by withdrawing from the West Bank, and implementing a Marshall-like plan with oversight from the UN to lift the standard of living. Then hoping hoping the West Bank doesn't fall to Hamas in the power vacuum (and if it does, another DMZ around the West Bank might be a practically unfortunate necessity pending Hamas' moderation...).
Thoughts? I want to hear from the "ceasefire" people the practical steps required and what it may actually look like along with an assessment of where it can go wrong, and what should happen in the cases where it goes wrong.
> Jews will never accept being an ethnic minority after the last few thousand years of endless pogroms including from MENA countries, literal survival will always trump everything else
> that's the reality
I'm not convinced that you're actually looking for a peaceful solution. The best you can imagine is a permanent DMZ so that Israel maintains an ethnic majority? Do Palestinians get to decide what they want to do at all, or is that just for Israel?
A ceasefire is not really optional. If Israel continues with this genocide, as they seem committed to doing, then America's support will grow untenable. All Israel's atrocities - undeniable, caught on video and seen by the world atrocities - are only possible with the support of the US war machine.
The US just vetoed the UN's call for a ceasefire, despite 61% of Americans wanting a ceasefire. Do you see that?? That's 61% of Israel's staunchest ally, telling them they're going way too far. People are waking up, and they're wondering why the fuck we're complicit in war crimes in full view of the world (again).
How long do you think America can sustain this support of mass murder? It's morally indefensible, and a permanent stain on our history.
> I'm not convinced that you're actually looking for a peaceful solution. The best you can imagine is a permanent DMZ so that Israel maintains an ethnic majority?
The DMZ is to keep Hamas on one side of the border following any ceasefire, because Hamas aren't going to moderate overnight, and Hamas aren't going away because of their autocratic structure. What's the alternative? This is why I asked you to sketch out your plan. If there is a realistic alternative to what I'm suggesting, I want to hear it. To convince the median Israeli (excluding the religious zealots) that a ceasefire is a good idea, you need to address their #1 (by far) issue, which is security concerns. Without attempting to do this, we are just yelling at clouds.