Comment by candiodari
2 years ago
> And all that's assuming there is no change to the relationship with the Palestinians. So maybe a change won't do as much as you think – it might just hasten the inevitable.
So destruction now or destruction some time after 2065? I know what I'd pick ...
> So destruction now or destruction some time after 2065? I know what I'd pick ...
Well, realistically, no big change is likely to happen to the relationship with the Palestinians in the near future. Maybe in another 20-40 years. So the time gap between the two scenarios may be smaller than you suggest.
My of the situation is different: Hamas is a business model. Dead Palestinians (and a show of killing Jews/Israeli, the superiority of islam/repressed people) for a LOT of money. It worked for the PLO, but it seems Abu Mazen suddenly decided he cares about human beings (AFTER becoming a billionnaire this way)
I don’t think Hamas has a clear strategy going forward. October 7 only happened because Israel was caught off-guard, that isn’t going to happen again. So what does Hamas do next? They will try to get as much leverage as they can out of the hostages; but they only have so many hostages, so that strategy can only take them so far. Then what do they do?
October 7 was calculated to derail the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and in the short-to-medium term it succeeded. But, I expect that (privately) MbS is really angry at Hamas for doing that, and I think most other Arab governments likely feel similarly. That doesn’t bode well for Hamas in the long-run.
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