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Comment by laidoffamazon

3 years ago

- Biden wins reelection comfortably, picking up North Carolina and getting closer than 2020 in Texas. Republicans win the senate, Democrats retake the house.

- Trump is convicted in at least one jurisdiction, though sentencing happens after the election. He refuses to drop out, but also refuses to debate.

- Core PCE stays around 2%, economy grows at about 2% in real terms. The overall economy is stable and growing and consumer sentiment turns positive again.

- Waymo has a publicized accident

- OpenAI releases their first open model

- Llama3 and Mistral become gpt4 competitive, but GPT5 is delayed for “safety reasons”

For fun I have copied over my predictions from last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34128162

—————

- US barely avoids recession, slow growth for H1, back to normal H2. NBER announces no recession in 2022. (Correct, though a tad pessimistic)

- Inflation normalizes at 4%, Fed pivots despite prior denials. Market trades sideways to slightly higher by EOY 2023. (Market traded much higher by the end of the year, and the CPI is now in the 3s not 4)

- Robotaxis become common in 10 cities around the southwest between the top ~4 competitors, but revenues are lower than expected. (Robotaxi deployments contracted due to Cruise accident)

- Continued consolidation amongst the AV component suppliers

- DeSantis, Pence, Christie, Hutchinson, Hogan enter the Presidential race. DeSantis ends up being weaker than expected, and is in a close #2 with Trump by the end of the year against a split field. (No Hogan and Trump dominated by much more than I expected after it turns out DeSantis has no juice)

- Trump recovers in GOP primary polls after DOJ indictment (he did!)

- Biden announces re-election bid, met with token opposition from Nina Turner (not Turner but his opposition is still low key. Didn’t expect RFK Jr)

- McCarthy narrowly wins speakership, House investigations end up a dud. (Happened, didn’t expect him to get axed so quickly though)

- Another fusion breakthrough (higher Q than expected) EOY 2023 (nothing huge)

- Tech job market normalizes at 2018 levels instead of 2021 levels in the second half of 2023 (feels right? Don’t know the numbers).

9 comments

laidoffamazon

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sAbakumoff  3 years ago

What's your reasoning behind Biden's reelection?

Currently, he trails Trump in all swing states, right

  • aaronsimpson  3 years ago

    A lot of variables and uncertainty. You have to remember we live in a bubble of people ultra-focused and attached to the news. Many others aren't as focused yet. As we get closer and election season is the top story of the news cycle, I expect polling to shake out in a different direction.

    To help illustrate: the election is 10 months away. 10 months ago was February 27th. Back then, there was prominent argument and speculation that Ron DeSantis was the future of the Republican Party. Look at his polling now.

  • laidoffamazon  3 years ago

    1) Biden will preside over a resilient and growing economy and a long list of legislative accomplishments, many of which were promised by Trump and were never enacted.

    2) Abortion rights will be a big part of the election cycle and 60%+ of Americans oppose the Dobbs ruling. Trump has made it clear that he takes credit for Dobbs.

    3) Polls (with the caveat that I believe they are flawed currently) suggest conviction switches a non-trivial number of Trump-friendly voters into the undecided or Biden column.

    4) Overall poll toplines are currently flawed, many only use registered voter screens, and seem to overstate the number of 2020 non-voters that will vote in 2024. In reality overall turnout will be much lower in 2024. Additionally, about 50% of voters appear to be in denial that the matchup will be Biden vs. Trump.

    5) Trump seems to think he has this in the bag [0] and will make even more extreme and reckless statements as the election cycle goes on.

    [0]: https://politicalwire.com/2023/12/26/melania-trump-to-step-u...

    Tilt Biden, I'd give it a 75% likelihood.