Comment by MegaDeKay
2 years ago
> so 4% is probably the best they're ever going to do
Why would you say that? Take a look at the trend plot shown at the link. The trend started increasing markedly about two years ago. I wouldn't think it would suddenly flatline. At least I hope it doesn't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm
> with a particular focus on the "chasm" or adoption gap that lies between early and mainstream markets.
> The author argues there is a chasm between the early adopters of the product (the technology enthusiasts and visionaries) and the early majority (the pragmatists)
Early adopters are a small minority, it's hard to give exact numbers but 5% sounds about right.
It's MUCH harder to get the pragmatists, late adopters, etc to use a new product. It generally requires a revolutionary product or brilliant PR and marketing (Linux doesn't really have PR and marketing and revolutionary would be a strong term for a product that's been in the market 30+ years).
Figuring out where the chasm is can be tricky though. If we're going to see S-curve adoption, we might be at the beginning of a rocket (maybe a small one a la crossing the chasm), but it's hard to say.
I think as market share goes up, there's going to be more polished product providers offering linux (liek Steam OS), and that's going to make it very reachable to the pragmatists.
I'm almost certain steam deck has at least grabbed some pragmatists.