Comment by jacquesm
1 year ago
The number of people that want to be part of a start-up is limited, the number of people that want the responsibility that comes with being an entrepreneur is further limited. Those people that would like to be entrepreneurs are entrepreneurs, the rest is more than happy to just have a job and a stable life. Risk appetite and willingness to hyperfocus on one thing at the expense of the rest, including quality of life is something that varies widely from one individual to another.
HN is not an 'average' in this sense at all, more likely an extreme outlier. This is also why the 'gig economy' is such a huge step back.
> Those people that would like to be entrepreneurs are entrepreneurs, the rest is more than happy to just have a job and a stable life
The 9 to 5 job was invented alongside the Industrial Revolution. (And clocks.) Before that, many civilisations were collections of entrepreneurial households. (Plus slaves/serfs/servants.)
The point is civilisation adapts. But the long run, in making some people more productive, has historically been everyone getting richer.
> Before that, many civilisations were collections of entrepreneurial households. (Plus slaves/serfs/servants.)
Those were the exceptions, not the rules, the slaves, serfs and servants were the bulk and what is happening now is that we are re-creating the conditions where lots of people will have nothing to offer but their physical labor, in that sense it is the reverse of the industrial revolution. But couple AI with robotics and you might not need those people at all. What do you propose to do with them? What about the millions of translators, truck drivers, copywriters cab drivers, couriers and so on?
If you propose they become entrepreneurs in what domain should this happen? And what will safeguard those domains from being usurped in turn?
It's interesting how the fact that civilization has adapted to date gets taken as proof that it will always work but that's faulty logic: this time it may not work and even if it worked for society it most definitely didn't work for all of the individuals in it. And this time around it may not work for the majority of the individuals in it.
> the slaves, serfs and servants were the bulk and what is happening now is that we are re-creating the conditions where lots of people will have nothing to offer but their physical labor
This was the exact argument made during the Industrial Revolution. Keep in mind that a minority of workers today are in white-collar jobs. We're over a century out from mechanising physical labor, and it's still strongly present.
> what about the millions of translators, truck drivers, copywriters cab drivers, couriers and so on?
Drafting spreadsheets by hand was a profession up to teh 1980s. Same for reams of printing and document-couriering services. People adapted.
> If you propose they become entrepreneurs in what domain should this happen?
Idk, launch a florist or ski instructing or tour guiding service. Travelling chef. There are so many talented people with zero knack for administration stuck in service jobs.
> this time it may not work and even if it worked for society it most definitely didn't work for all of the individuals in it. And this time around it may not work for the majority of the individuals in it.
Not using precedent as proof. Just saying there is precedence for technological revolutions and this very concern. The fact that it's gone pretty much one way elevates the burden of proof for those preaching doom and gloom.
Another observation: the socieities that best distributed the gains in a way that was win-win were those who approached it with optimism.
> it may not work for the majority of the individuals in it
Sure. I'm not saying the transition won't be hard. But it's not avoidable. And in the long run, precedence shows it should (or at the very least, can) work out. Having excess production and a labour surplus is a champagne problem. That doesn't mean one can't fuck it up.
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> The 9 to 5 job was invented alongside the Industrial Revolution.
Industrial revolution enable some entrepreneurial households - that were few of them anyway - to move up. Most people were on that 'serfs' scale. 8 hour workday is regulation 'invented' as reaction to Laissez-faire of the Industrial Revolution.
It’s much easier to be entrepreneurs when you aren’t competing with literally millions of people world wide. The bar is so much higher now. If you wanted to be a blacksmith you were only competing with people within a few day walking distance. If I want to make bespoke software I’m competing with multinational conglomerates.
And even a blacksmith would be competing with forgeries from China if they had something that was moderately successful.