Comment by Animats

This seems far fetched given China's traditional insistence that countries' internal affairs should not be subject to external overview, it's undeclared stance that subject populations should be suppressed by whatever means necessary and the still marginal effect of the conflict on its trade.

Amphibious landings are highly vulnerable, and almost impossible to pull off without air superiority. What gives the impression that China's amphibious landing ships are resistant to anti-shipping missiles? Every article on modern naval combat I've read highlights just how vulnerable surface vessels are to attack, and how crucial it is to keep them out of range. I am incredibly dubious that China would land military ships in Gaza.

I was with you until chinese contested amphibious landing in occupied gaza. China’s big picture strategy is to grow while not being drained by small conflicts the way the US is. This would be totally against that strategy.

> Gaza has a sizable coastline, and China has a large number of amphibious assault ships available. They can defend themselves against Israel air attacks

Sorry but this is goofy fan-fiction. No, China does not have the ability to forcibly land in Gaza without huge losses, and then being completely trapped there with no hope of resupply. That's an incredibly long supply line.

I think its extremely unlikely that china will go to war with israel. That would be an extremely bloody conflict for almost no benefit to china.

Additionally china's military currently has big corruption problems (e.g. the missle fuel water controversy). I doubt china really wants to put their reputation on the line until they sort that out, especially given what happened to russia in ukraine.

They might look like "the good guys" by doing that, but they'd also be dragging themselves into an open war Israel (and its allies). I'm not sure that would be a smart move.

I'm also unsure if this move would be seen well domestically. They have enough problems right now, and focusing resources on this doesn't sound like it would be met with high praise.

Which other international conflicts has China resolved? The current Chinese state seems to be much better at fostering conflict (I.e. the ongoing Korean War) than resolving it.

Pointlessly going to war with Israel would be so far out of character for China that I can't even imagine why you are suggesting this possibility.

> Gaza has a sizable coastline, and China has a large number of amphibious assault ships available. They can defend themselves against Israel air attacks.

Chinese warships will never be allowed anywhere near the Mediterranean in the first place - if there is one thing that even the split US Congress will agree on, it is that China already has too much influence and that they need to be stopped.

Additionally, China's army hasn't seen actual combat in a loooong time. It's likely that their army is in just as bad of a shape as Russia's is, and getting that demonstrated on the world stage before they have a chance to snack a piece or the whole of Taiwan would be pretty foolish.

China believes in soft power. So I doubt they'd come in guns blazing to rescue Gaza.

However, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by brokering some kind of peace using their supply chain supremacy.

Meanwhile US looks more and more like a paper tiger because they can't stop Yemen from blockading Israeli shipments and also refusing to do the one thing that would resolve the shipping issues: force Israel to the table for a ceasefire.

China has no ability to project much outside of its own territory. They might be able to invade taiwan, sure, but anything farther off is still out of reach for them (even if they wanted to, which I highly doubt). They really couldn't stage much from their one support base in Djibouti.

China would only get involved to extend their influence. China is very much tit-for-tat. But who will grant them anything in return? None of the neighboring countries likes the Palestinians. Egypt even holds the border closed.

That is preposterous.

Israel could (and probably would) prevent the fleet from delivering the aid even without help from the US.

In support of your "If China decides to send humanitarian relief to Gaza, China can do it, and Israel can't stop them," you link to a description of a ship designed for an invasion of an island 85 miles off China's coast, an invasion which China (correctly IMO) calculates would probably end in failure (or else it would've invaded by now).

Israel can't challenge China militarily in, e.g., the Pacific, but it is a wealthy competent state that takes security seriously.

You really think China wants to create a precedent where a foreign power comes and helps a smaller region to deter a bigger aggressor, with military force? I find that highly unlikely.

This has exactly zero chances of happening. Israel would never let anyone they don’t approve of get anywhere near Gaza.

China doesn’t like things that cause revolts. Because rebellions can be infectious.

i don't think china wants having anything to do with hamas. For a first experience as a military-humanitarian adventure, the chances of appearing as a support for hostage-taking muslim terrorist is way too high.