Comment by ajb
1 year ago
If you look at the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention's statement [1], they call both the Hamas attack and the current Israeli action Genocidal. They characterise genocidal attacks in terms of not just their factual effect, but the intentional psychological effect of an "massacre of symbols of group life", in which the genocidaires deliberately try to symbolically erase the other group, in ways which are hugely traumatic: "inversion rituals, such as the killing of children in front of their family members; and desecration rituals, such as the massacre of entire families, the setting fire to homes with families still inside them, and the desecration of dead bodies", which they see evidence of in the Hamas attack. This is all magnified by the existing trauma of the Jewish people, in the holocaust but also events since, in living memory of more people - such as 9/11 (an attack on the city with the largest Jewish population).
So you have to realise that Israelis are not thinking normally right now. Even though the Hamas attack has in military terms "culminated", and Israel's military is many times more powerful, their trauma leads them to believe that there is a real, present threat of extinction of the Israeli state and their own nation and families. Under such conditions, it is very hard for them to see the suffering of 'the enemy' as relevent.
It also doesn't help that basically everyone else is just piling responsibility for a solution on the Israelis, despite the US, UK and Europe having enormous historic responsibility for setting up the situation.
[please note, this is explanation, not justification]
[1] https://www.lemkininstitute.com/statements-new-page/statemen...
> So you have to realise that Israelis are not thinking normally right now. Even though the Hamas attack has in military terms "culminated", and Israel's military is many times more powerful, their trauma leads them to believe that there is a real, present threat of extinction of the Israeli state and their own nation and families.
I think that they think there is a real, persistent threat of Hamas continuing to make this kind of attack. Hamas has consistently said so, so Israel has reasonable grounds for thinking so. Hamas has even said that they won't settle for a two-state solution - they demand the destruction of Israel.
So if you're an Israeli, that leaves you very few choices: stay and accept being massacred every so often, shut down the country and leave, or destroy Hamas. Unsurprisingly, they choose the third option.
Here we run into the difficulties of the current media environment. With the Ukraine war, everyone and his dog is offering their tactical and strategic analysis. Here, not so much - just moral statements and talking points. So, while it doesn't seem plausible to me that Hamas would be able to repeat its attack again and again - it managed to create such a large attack because the IDF (or its political masters) f*cked up - I don't really have the analysis to back that up. What actually were Israel's military options? What could Hamas plausibly do under various scenarios?
I don't think the attack could be repeated as successfully even if Israel withdrew. And Israel clearly had justification doing something - but without an analysis of their options, it's hard to know what's justified - which is the heart of this case.
I agree that Israel's options are limited - in the absence of outside assistance. In fact, I don't see how Israel can solve the situation in the absence of a neutral outside security force. Here's why:
For a peaceful settlement, both populations need to be given hope.
- Israelis need hope of long term safety and security
- Palestinians need hope of self-determination and civil rights.
No deployment of Israeli forces satisfies both conditions. If Israel occupies Gaza, they deny the Palestinian hope. If they withdraw, they give up their own (which they won't do). Even if Hamas is destroyed, the PA is too weak to guarantee security for either Palestinians or Israelis, and Israel won't trust them enough to allow them to grow strong. Ergo, a neutral force is needed. But, that would require US co-operation, if not actual US forces, and I don't think Biden will risk it in an election year.
Maybe not the US. In fact, probably not the US - the Palestinians would (perhaps rightly) view them as likely biased.
This sounds like the perfect task for a UN peacekeeping force. (Of course, after various "resolutions" over the years, the Israelis may view the UN as biased...)
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