I expected a matter-of-fact explanation of a simple error, and a comment thread that was collapsed - exactly what I found. reductum implied there wasn't an explanation and that the complaining comment thread had been deleted without comment, both of which were hard to believe, so I went looking.
You just need to move your game theory to a different level. The expected value of lying about such things is super negative and the expected value of telling the truth is super positive.
I'm sure there's a model in which lying some of the time but not too often has marginally higher expected value, but it's also going to have significantly higher risk and that's not worth it, plus you have to be disciplined enough to actually apply such a strategy. One slip and you're dead! I'm too lazy for that.
My point is obviously that you’d tell a lie that looks like the truth people want to believe. Which when you get away with it is the biggest EV of all.
What did you think he was going to say? Explain that it was in fact a big HN conspiracy?
I mean yeah it probably was just a mistake but what do you expect somebody to say?
I expected a matter-of-fact explanation of a simple error, and a comment thread that was collapsed - exactly what I found. reductum implied there wasn't an explanation and that the complaining comment thread had been deleted without comment, both of which were hard to believe, so I went looking.
You just need to move your game theory to a different level. The expected value of lying about such things is super negative and the expected value of telling the truth is super positive.
I'm sure there's a model in which lying some of the time but not too often has marginally higher expected value, but it's also going to have significantly higher risk and that's not worth it, plus you have to be disciplined enough to actually apply such a strategy. One slip and you're dead! I'm too lazy for that.
My point is obviously that you’d tell a lie that looks like the truth people want to believe. Which when you get away with it is the biggest EV of all.
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